Various developments are underway at a global level. Globalisation in politics, law, culture and economics continues unabated. Economies are increasingly linked to each other. The world economy is seen as vulnerable from this perspective. Companies are diligently searching for new markets that can form a basis for their future growth and strengthening their competitive position. The favourites are the four major emerging countries, dubbed the BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia and, principally, India and China.

Economic growth in the BRIC countries appears to be unstoppable. The benefit of economic growth is that sales prospects in these countries are increasing and that grinding poverty there can be tackled more effectively. However, the downside is that there will soon be serious consequences at global level aswell, if economic growth is not established in a sustainable manner. The enormous size of the populations in the BRIC countries means that the usual sources of assistance will soon
be exhausted and soil, air and water pollution will increase even more dramatically.

In the absence of policy changes, estimates suggest that the global availability of renewable resources (wood, fish, fresh water, clean air and fertile land) will be under serious threat in thirty years. Biodiversity will decline because of problems such as water, soil and air pollution, deforestation, fragmentation of nature reserves, overexploitation of natural resources and climate change. There will be social and economic consequences, besides major ecological damage. International tensions and conflicts can be expected too. The four major emerging economies mentioned above obviously seek more prosperity but also an equal economic and political position.

This presents the global economy with opportunities but also threats. Research conducted by Yale University’s professor Robert Shiller revealed a deep-routed fear of emerging markets. Shiller believes that the economic progress of China, India and other emerging countries with large reservoirs of cheap labour makes people afraid. People are afraid of losing their jobs and of what the future holds for their children in a world in which they have to compete with the poorest of the poor.

Their fear is fed by the fact that the problem no longer only concerns the traditional movement of low-skill work but also now concerns the movement of high-skill jobs. These are mainly jobs in information technology. However, research and development departments of multinationals are also slowly but surely moving to these countries. According to Shiller, the fear is real and visceral, and could lead to counterproductive protectionist measures. Shiller: “We must not let this happen. The emerging countries are doing nothing more blameworthy than working towards their place as equals alongside advanced countries. It is morally and practically vital that they succeed”. In other words, people can’t be denied their need for economic development.

The more than 2.5 billion inhabitants of these four countries will demand an increasingly larger piece of the diminishing cake as their individual economic situations improve. China’s energy requirement is already placing enormous pressure on available oil and gas stocks. This will also lead to an even greater increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and climate changes (global warming). According to the World Energy Outlook, a publication of the International Energy Agency (IEA), an agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the demand for energy will increase by 60% by 2030 vis-à-vis the level in 2002.
CO2 emissions will increase by the same percentage. Even if governments adopted a more environment-friendly policy, the anticipated increase in greenhouse gases could only be reduced by 10%, according to the IEA. Two-thirds of the increase in fossil fuel use, especially coal, will be attributable to developing countries, including China and India, where economic growth coincides with a large population increase.

Globally, it is also important to mention that around 1.2 billion people currently have to live on approximately 1 US dollar a day. Nearly 800 million people also suffer from hunger.
These are shocking figures. Matters should not be allowed to get worse. Indifference to the plight of our fellow human beings is not only morally reprehensible; finding sustainable solutions is also essential from the point of view of enlightened self-interest. The frenetic sealing of the Southern European borders and the US-Mexico border will not stop the flight of poor people to wealthier parts of the world. That will require structural measures. The United Nations is also convinced of this, given the agreed Millennium Goals and the UN Global Compact.

Humanity is currently facing enormously important questions. It might not yet be the eleventh hour but it is approaching rapidly!